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The Green Energy Revolution:
Global State of Play

SkyEdgeAI's comprehensive synthesis of publicly available data from IEA, IRENA, Ember, WEF, Science, Nature, and 40+ primary sources — covering every major energy sector from 2025 through outlook to 2030.

5,149 GW
Total RE Capacity 2025
692 GW
Added in 2025 (+15.5%)
$3.3T
Total Energy Investment
814 GW
Wind + Solar Record 2025
17.6%
Global Electricity Share
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§ 01 · Overview

A breakthrough year
for clean power

2025 was named Science magazine's Breakthrough of the Year: the seemingly unstoppable rise of renewable energy. Renewables surpassed coal as a source of global electricity for the first time across a sustained period. Solar and wind grew fast enough to cover all new global electricity demand in the first half of 2025.

85.6%
Share of new capacity additions from renewables
43%
Low-carbon sources' share of global electricity (Q1–Q3 2025)
$2.2T
Clean energy investment in 2025 (double 2020 levels)
37.8Gt
Record CO₂ emissions in 2024 — transition still not fast enough
$5.6T
Annual clean investment needed by 2030 (IEA) — still 2.5x current pace
$138B
Annual gas import savings from 2025's new solar + wind alone
Annual Capacity Additions (GW) — All Renewables
Solar PV Wind Hydro + Other
Technology Breakdown — 2025 New Additions
Key finding: In the first three quarters of 2025, solar and wind expanded fast enough to meet ALL new electricity demand growth globally — not just supplementing the system, but outpacing the demand increase itself. Solar grew more than three times faster than any other source. The virtuous cycle of scale → lower cost → more deployment has become self-sustaining.
"The seemingly unstoppable growth of renewable energy is Science's 2025 Breakthrough of the Year."
§ 02 · Solar Energy

Solar: the dominant
force reshaping power

Solar photovoltaics now leads every metric — capacity added, cost reduction, and speed of deployment. China manufactures 80% of the world's solar cells, driving prices to levels no competitor can match. 2025 was another record-breaking year.

511 GW
Solar PV added globally in 2025
~2,900 GW
Cumulative global solar capacity by end-2025
647 GW
Total solar (incl. CSP) additions 2025
34.6%
Perovskite-silicon tandem cell efficiency record (vs 22% silicon)
34%
US solar generation growth YoY in 2025
+60%
African solar panel imports from China in 12m to June 2025
Global Solar Capacity Growth (GW)

Technology Breakthroughs

Perovskite-Silicon Tandems: Oxford PV and others commercialising 34.6%-efficient cells — a 57% efficiency gain over standard silicon. Production facilities came online in 2025.
Bifacial Modules: Now mainstream in utility-scale deployment — capturing reflected light from the rear side, boosting yield 10–30% depending on ground albedo.
AI-Optimised Forecasting: Google's DeepMind demonstrated 20% improvements in wind and solar farm value through AI-powered generation forecasting, enabling tighter grid integration.
Floating Solar: Expanding onto reservoirs and water bodies — preventing evaporation, cooling the panels for higher efficiency, and avoiding land-use conflicts.
Agrivoltaics: Combining farming with solar — crops and livestock coexist under elevated panels, addressing land competition at scale.
US milestone: Combined wind and utility-scale solar reached a record 17% of the US electricity mix in 2025 — up from less than 1% just two decades ago. Including small-scale rooftop solar, the figure rises to 19%. Despite policy headwinds from the Trump administration's rollback of the Inflation Reduction Act's clean energy provisions, solar and battery installations in 2026 are projected to be 60% more than in 2025.
§ 03 · Wind & Offshore Wind

Wind: onshore surge,
offshore at a crossroads

Global onshore wind had a record year in 2025, while offshore wind experienced a painful slowdown driven by rising costs, cancelled projects, and geopolitical disruption — yet a record construction pipeline signals strong long-term momentum.

158.7 GW
Total wind capacity added 2025 (+14% YoY)
167 GW
Wind + solar combined at record 47% increase vs 2024
6 GW
New offshore wind 2025 (down from 11.1 GW in 2024)
84.5 GW
Total global offshore wind operational
33.3 GW
Record global offshore construction pipeline
396 GW
Projected global offshore capacity by 2034
Offshore Wind: Installed Capacity by Region (GW)
Key Offshore Wind Markets
China
~42 GW
UK
14.7 GW
Germany
~9 GW
Netherlands
~7 GW
Taiwan
~5 GW
USA
~0.2 GW

China accounts for ~50% of cumulative global offshore wind installations.

North Sea Summit 2026 (Hamburg): Nine nations — Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, UK — reaffirmed the 300 GW North Sea target, committing to 100 GW through cross-border collaborative projects and 15 GW annual builds from 2031–2040.
US offshore turbulence: Trump administration issued stop-work orders against Equinor's Empire Wind and Ørsted's Revolution Wind (later reversed). Nearly $2B in write-downs on Atlantic Shores project. Only ~174 MW currently operational despite enormous potential (1,476 GW fixed-bottom + 2,773 GW floating).
Floating wind breakthrough and setback: France's Provence Grand Large fully commissioned in June 2025 — world's first commercial-scale floating wind. UK's Blyth 2 (58.4 MW) cancelled January 2026: technical success doesn't guarantee commercial viability. High LCOE requires stronger subsidies or offtake agreements.
Onshore technology gains: Smart blade technology adjusting angle in real-time, bio-inspired designs mimicking whale fin tubercles to reduce turbulence, carbon-fibre blades reducing weight while increasing strength. 20 MW+ offshore turbines expected to become standard by 2027–2030.
China's wind ambition: President Xi announced a 2035 target providing guidance for overall wind growth of 100 GW per year between 2026 and 2035. The Beijing Declaration 2.0 set a floor of 120 GW annual installed wind capacity — including at least 15 GW offshore — during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). That offshore target is nearly double the 8 GW average achieved during 2021–2025.
§ 04 · Nuclear & Small Modular Reactors

The nuclear renaissance:
SMRs accelerating to reality

Nuclear energy is experiencing its strongest revival in decades, driven by soaring electricity demand from AI and data centres. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) — factory-built, scalable, and deployable almost anywhere — are transitioning from laboratory concept to commercial pipeline with unprecedented speed and private investment.

127+
SMR designs globally identified by OECD NEA (2025)
£2.5B
UK government SMR deployment package
400 GW
US nuclear capacity target by 2050 (Trump admin)
+3%
Annual global nuclear generation growth expected through 2026
2030s
First commercial SMR deployments expected
29 GW
Additional nuclear capacity anticipated globally next few years

Key Developments

US strategy (May 2025): White House unveiled plan to quadruple nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050 with SMRs central. DOE Fusion & SMR Roadmap released Oct 2025.
US–UK Atlantic Partnership (Sept 2025): Joint nuclear safety assessments, synchronised approvals, and shared commitment to eliminate Russian nuclear fuel by 2028.
EU SMR Strategy (March 2026): First ever coordinated EU strategy targeting first SMRs operational by early 2030s, with €15M in safety R&D funding 2026–2027.
Rolls-Royce SMR selected: UK government chose Rolls-Royce SMR to deploy first reactors at Wylfa in Wales; same design to deliver to Czech Republic.
TerraPower / Natrium: NRC completed environmental review Oct 2025 and safety evaluation Dec 2025. Decision on construction permit expected H1 2026. Meta agreed to purchase power from up to 8 Natrium plants; NVIDIA's NVentures also invested.

Tech Giants Enter Nuclear

Corporate Nuclear Power Agreements
Google + Kairos Power
500 MW of SMR power for data centres by 2030 (southeastern US)
Amazon + X-energy
Up to 12 Xe-100 SMRs in Washington state (Oct 2025)
Meta + TerraPower
Agreement for up to 8 Natrium nuclear plants
TVA + NuScale
Up to 6 GW of new nuclear power (Sept 2025)
Centrica + X-energy
Up to 12 SMRs planned for northeast England
SMR advantage: Unlike large reactors (1,000 MW+), SMRs range 1–300 MW, can be factory-built and shipped, deployed in remote or industrial settings, and aggregated to meet exact demand. Some designs use molten salt or gas coolants enabling industrial heat applications in addition to power.
§ 05 · Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Geothermal: the
sleeping giant wakes up

Conventional geothermal is geographically limited — but Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), using oil-and-gas drilling techniques to create artificial hydrothermal reservoirs anywhere on Earth, are transitioning from experiment to commercial deployment in 2025–2026. Investment surged 80% in a single year.

$2.2B
Next-gen geothermal financing in 2025 (+80% YoY, up from $22M in 2018)
5 TW
Theoretical US EGS potential to 5km depth (4x current US capacity)
90 GW+
Cost-effective US EGS capacity by 2050 (DOE projection)
$171.5M
US DOE EGS field test funding announcement (Feb 2026)
32 gCO₂/kWh
Lifecycle emissions — just 6% of natural gas generation
<$70/MWh
Target EGS cost by 2030 (DOE) — competitive with nuclear, biomass

2025–2026 Commercial Milestones

Fervo Energy — Cape Station, Utah: First large-scale commercial EGS in the US. Coming online June 2026 at 53 MW; scaling to 400 MW by 2028, with permits for 2 GW total. Fervo raised over $1B (2022–2025) and achieved drilling rates of 30m/hour — double earlier benchmarks.
Eavor — Geretsried, Bavaria (Dec 2025): World's first commercial closed-loop geothermal plant feeds electricity to the German grid. Uses sealed pipes through hot rock rather than fracking — no induced seismicity risk.
Newberry pilot — Oregon: Successful fracking and circulation test of a 331°C EGS reservoir — breakthrough toward supercritical geothermal (~375°C), which achieves several times the power density of lower-temperature systems.
Mazama Energy — Oregon: 15 MW enhanced geothermal pilot demonstrated at high temperature — another sign of commercial readiness scaling across multiple developers.
Why EGS Matters: Key Advantages
☀
24/7 Baseload Power
Unlike solar and wind, geothermal runs around the clock regardless of weather or season.
📍
Universal Deployment
EGS can be placed almost anywhere — not confined to volcanic regions like conventional geothermal.
🌿
Minimal Land Footprint
Compact surface installations — 30 MW per sq km — vs vast solar or wind farms for the same output.
💎
Lithium Co-Production
Geothermal brines can co-produce lithium and other critical minerals — a new revenue stream being actively pursued by developers.
🏭
Industrial Heat
Deep direct-use geothermal can supply industrial process heat — decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors without electricity conversion losses.
Data centre opportunity: Fervo and other EGS developers are signing power purchase agreements directly with data centre operators (Google, Microsoft) — providing firm, 24/7 clean power that variable solar and wind cannot guarantee without expensive storage.
§ 06 · Nuclear Fusion

Fusion: from lab curiosity
to commercial race

Fusion energy — the power source of the sun — has moved from theoretical aspiration to a competitive global industry. With $10.6 billion in private investment, 53 companies active, and governments racing to establish national strategies, commercialisation by the mid-2030s is a credible (if challenging) target.

$10.6B
Private fusion investment 2021–2025
53
Active fusion companies (up from 23 in 2021 — 2.3x in 4 years)
8.6 MJ
NIF output (April 2025) — 4x its own laser input energy
1.8 GJ
Wendelstein 7-X stellarator record energy turnover (May 2025)
2034
ITER (France) first research operations — world's largest tokamak
Mid-2030s
US DOE target: first fusion electricity on the grid
Private Fusion Investment by Year ($B)
Annual Investment

2025–2026 Milestones

April 2025 — NIF, California
8.6 MJ output — 4x laser input
Ignition standardised; output growing with each run.
May 2025 — Wendelstein 7-X, Germany
1.8 GJ stellarator energy record
Plasma maintained 8 minutes — world stellarator record.
Oct 2025 — US DOE Fusion Roadmap
First national fusion commercialisation strategy
600+ scientists, 15+ companies; targeting power on grid by mid-2030s.
Feb 2026 — Pacific Fusion + Sandia
"Significant roadblock" to fusion removed
Inertial confinement approach breakthrough; 1,000-fold performance leap predicted by 2030.
China — EAST Tokamak
AI-controlled plasma density milestone
Millisecond AI precision maintains stability at extreme densities — critical for sustained reactions.
The geopolitical race: By some estimates, China's government fusion support in 2023 was $1.5 billion — twice the DOE's entire fusion spending. Chinese private fusion investment rose from zero in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024, now matching US levels. Germany's new government wants the first commercial fusion plant to be on German soil. Japan has a national fusion strategy and regulatory framework. The IEA's 2026 State of Energy Innovation Report identifies a key 2030 milestone: the first fusion plant to demonstrate net electricity generation to the grid.
§ 07 · Energy Storage Technologies

Storage: the backbone
of the transition

Intermittency — the inability of solar and wind to generate power when the sun isn't shining or wind isn't blowing — has historically been the core limitation of renewables. A wave of storage technologies, from lithium-ion batteries to green hydrogen and next-generation chemistries, is systematically solving this problem.

1,200 GW
IEA battery storage target by 2030 (12-fold increase from current)
85–95%
Round-trip efficiency: Li-ion batteries (ideal for 1–8h storage)
35–45%
Round-trip efficiency: green hydrogen (but unlimited duration)
$1–2/kg
Green hydrogen production cost target by 2030 (from $3.8–$11.9/kg today)
25x
Growth in green hydrogen production capacity 2021–2024
80%+
"Solar battery" charging efficiency — stores solar for days, releases H₂ on demand
Storage Technologies: Duration vs Efficiency

Technology Landscape

Lithium-ion (dominant today): 85–95% round-trip efficiency. Ideal for grid balancing and EVs. Limited to 4–8 hours. Costs fell ~90% between 2015 and 2023. Battery storage added 15,788 MW in the US alone in 2025.
Iron-air batteries (emerging): Target 100+ hour applications at below $20/kWh. Use iron (the fourth-most-abundant element) — no lithium, cobalt, or rare earths. Complement, not replace, Li-ion.
Solid-state batteries (2027–2030): Higher energy density, faster charging, improved safety. Will power next-generation EVs. In April 2025, a Chinese company demonstrated 323 miles of range from just 5 minutes of charging.
Vanadium flow batteries: Can be scaled independently for power and energy, ideal for multi-day grid storage. No degradation over thousands of cycles unlike Li-ion.
Green hydrogen — industrial decarbonisation: Cannot cost-effectively replace batteries for electricity, but uniquely suited to decarbonise steel, cement, ammonia, aviation (SAF), shipping, and heavy transport. EU ReFuelEU Aviation mandate: 2% SAF in 2025, rising to 6% by 2030.
Pumped hydro (dominant long-duration): Still 68% of global storage capacity. Annual additions of pumped storage hydropower forecast to double to 16.5 GW by 2030, driven by China (60%+ of growth) and Spain, Austria, India.
Solar battery breakthrough (Feb 2026): Researchers at Ulm and Jena universities published in Nature Communications a water-soluble copolymer that stores energy from sunlight for days and releases it as hydrogen on demand — at over 80% charging efficiency, reversibly, via a pH switch. "You can think of it as a combination of a solar cell and a battery at the molecular level," explained lead researcher Prof. Sven Rau. The results open new perspectives for cost-effective, scalable solar storage — potentially enabling solar-powered hydrogen production even in the dark.
§ 08 · Critical Minerals

The minerals bottleneck:
the Achilles' heel

Every solar panel, wind turbine, EV battery, and electrolyser requires specific minerals that are geographically concentrated, politically sensitive, and slow to bring to market. The clean energy transition is accelerating demand for these materials at a pace that supply chains — locked in decade-long development cycles — are struggling to match.

6×
Projected rise in critical mineral demand by 2030 (4.7M → 30M tonnes/yr)
3–4×
Lithium, cobalt, rare earth demand by 2040 (net-zero pathway)
+16%
J.P. Morgan forecast for lithium demand growth in 2026
80%
China's share of solar cell manufacturing
20 yrs
Typical mine development lead time (IRENA) — the central supply risk
$1B
US Pentagon investment in MP Materials — first domestic rare-earth magnet chain
Critical Minerals: Use by Technology

Key Vulnerabilities & Responses

China export controls (2025): China tightened export controls on rare earths and critical minerals essential for wind turbines, power electronics, and EV batteries. As the dominant processor (70%+ of most minerals), China's supply restrictions create immediate ripple effects globally.
Thin-film solar at risk: Cadmium and tellurium shortages could limit thin-film photovoltaic deployment; indium shortages affect CIGS cells — creating technology-specific constraints that could shape which solar technologies dominate.
US Pentagon + MP Materials: Pentagon became largest shareholder in MP Materials — the only fully integrated rare earth magnet producer in the US — in a landmark $1B financing deal designed as a "blueprint" for strategic minerals.
COP30 milestone: Critical minerals were negotiated at a UN climate summit for the very first time, recognising that supply security is inseparable from the energy transition.
India's response: India's Critical Minerals Mission seeks to reduce strategic dependencies and build domestic supply chains. China supply tightening in 2025 exposed India's reliance on imported polysilicon and wafers for solar manufacturing.
Recycling gap: IRENA warns that current recycling technology and infrastructure are lagging behind demand growth. As battery fleets age (10–15 year lifecycles), recycling could become a major secondary source — but the infrastructure is not yet ready at scale.
§ 09 · The Developing World

Vast potential,
persistent gaps

The Global South — Latin America, Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia — holds 70% of the world's renewable energy potential and will drive 80% of future energy demand growth. Yet it received just 7% of global clean energy investment. The investment imbalance is the defining injustice — and the biggest opportunity — of the energy transition.

666M
People still without electricity access (2023)
70%
Latin America electricity already from renewables
60%
Africa's share of world's best solar potential
1%
Africa's current share of installed solar PV — the gap is enormous
7%
Low/lower-middle income countries' share of clean energy investment (housing 40% of world population)
2×
Global South solar+wind share growing 2x faster than Global North (23% vs 11% annually)
Clean Energy Investment — Global South vs North ($B, 2024)

Regional Spotlights

Africa — record growth despite financing gaps: +15.9% capacity in 2025, driven by Ethiopia, South Africa, Egypt. Solar imports from China rose 60% in 12 months. Major development banks pledged $50B+ through 2030. In 8 African sub-Saharan countries, solar's share of electricity is already more than twice that of the United States.
Latin America — renewables leader, financing laggard: 70% renewable electricity, among the world's highest. Uruguay: 98% renewables through stable policy auctions. Costa Rica: 100% renewable electricity for extended periods. Brazil: fastest green patent approvals (43 → 9 months). But LAC clean investment fell $81B → $67B in 2025. Needs $150B/yr by 2030.
Southeast Asia — data centres driving demand: Ember analysis projects data centres could account for 2–30% of national electricity demand by 2030. Grid congestion in hubs like Frankfurt, London, Dublin pushes AI investment toward cleaner-grid regions in Asia. ASEAN renewables+AI integration could save $67B and 386M tonnes CO₂ by 2035.
Morocco — Africa's offshore wind pioneer: Will commence building Africa's first offshore wind farm in 2029 (1 GW, near Essaouira), leveraging excellent Atlantic wind resources and European power-export ambitions via green hydrogen and interconnectors.
§ 10 · India: The Clean Energy Moment

India: five years ahead,
and accelerating

India achieved its 2030 target of 50% non-fossil electricity capacity in 2025 — five years early. It is now the world's fourth-largest renewable energy market, with solar capacity growing 42-fold since 2014, and a bold green hydrogen strategy that could reshape its industrial and import structure by 2030.

254 GW
Total RE installed capacity (November 2025) — +23% YoY
123 GW
Solar capacity (August 2025) — 42x since 2014
52.7 GW
Wind capacity — 2.5x since 2014
51.5%
Non-fossil share of installed capacity — target met 5 years early
44.5 GW
RE capacity added in 2025 alone — nearly double 2024's 24.72 GW
$101B
India clean energy investment in 2025 (of $150B total energy investment — a record)
India Non-Fossil Capacity Growth (GW)
Solar module manufacturing boom: India's indigenous solar module manufacturing capacity under ALMM reached ~144 GW per annum, with 81 GW added in 2025 alone — a 99% year-on-year increase.
Green hydrogen ambition: India's Transport Minister outlined a plan for 5 million tonnes of green hydrogen annually by 2030, attracting ₹8 lakh crore ($95B+) in investment, creating 600,000 jobs, and cutting crude oil import costs by ₹1 lakh crore per year.
PM Surya Ghar scheme: 14.43 lakh rooftop solar systems installed between January and December 2025 — benefiting 18.14 lakh households — under the government's 1-crore household rooftop solar programme.
Battery storage push: Government approved viability gap funding for BESS in 2025; Energy Storage Day (Sept 2025) conference attracted 200+ policymakers, industry leaders, researchers. Sodium-ion battery research accelerating to reduce lithium dependency.
Target: 500 GW by 2030: India targets 500 GW of non-fossil electricity capacity by 2030 — aiming to attract ₹30 lakh crore (~$360B) in total investment. With 2025's 44.5 GW addition rate, the trajectory is on track if maintained.
§ 11 · Master Consolidated Summary

The full picture:
where the world stands

A sector-by-sector synthesis of every key metric, challenge, and forward projection from 2025–2026 through to 2030 and beyond.

Sector 2025–2026 Status Key Figure 2030 Outlook Trend
Solar PV 511–647 GW added in 2025; cumulative ~2,900 GW. Perovskite tandems at 34.6% efficiency entering commercial scale. +11% YoY additions Dominant technology; ~$3.6T market value by 2030. 35%+ efficiency cells commercial. ▲ Accelerating
Onshore Wind 158.7 GW total wind added. China added 119 GW alone (75% of world total). AI-optimised blades and smart grid integration advancing. +14% YoY China targets 100 GW/year wind 2026–2035. 20 MW+ turbines standard. ▲ Strong
Offshore Wind Only 6 GW added in 2025 (down 46% from 2024). Rising costs, US policy reversals. Floating wind proven but commercially challenging. 84.5 GW total operational 396 GW by 2034. Offshore to nearly triple 2024–2030 to ~238 GW. North Sea 300 GW target. ~ Recovering
Nuclear — SMRs 127+ designs globally. EU strategy adopted March 2026. US, UK, tech giants all signed major agreements. No commercial SMR yet in operation (except Russia, China pilots). 400 GW US target by 2050 First commercial SMRs operational early 2030s. Factory production to drive cost down rapidly. ▲ Accelerating
Geothermal (EGS) First commercial EGS plants (US, Germany) coming online 2025–2026. $2.2B investment (+80% YoY). Fervo drilling at 30m/hour. $2.2B invested 2025 DOE projects <$70/MWh by 2030. 90 GW potential by 2050 in US alone. Data-centre PPAs accelerating. ▲ Emerging fast
Nuclear Fusion $10.6B private investment 2021–2025. 53 companies. NIF at 8.6 MJ output. DOE national strategy released. Still pre-commercial — zero grid-connected fusion plants exist. 53 companies racing First grid-connected fusion plant target: mid-2030s. IEA milestone: net electricity demonstrated by 2030. ◎ Pre-commercial
Battery Storage (Li-ion) Explosive growth. 15,788 MW added in US alone. IEA projects 1,200 GW globally by 2030. Battery costs fell ~90% since 2015. 85–95% efficiency 1,200 GW by 2030 (12x current). Iron-air, solid-state, sodium-ion batteries entering market 2027–2030. ▲ Dominant
Green Hydrogen Capacity grew 25x from 2021–2024. Cost still $3.8–$11.9/kg vs target $1–2/kg. Round-trip efficiency 35–45% limits grid-scale use. Best suited for industrial sectors. $1/kg target by 2030 IEA: electrolyser capacity to exceed 50 GW/year by 2030. Green H₂ for steel, ammonia, aviation becoming primary applications. ~ Cost challenge
Critical Minerals China tightened export controls 2025. Demand projected to rise 6x by 2030. COP30 first-ever minerals negotiation. US Pentagon invested $1B in domestic rare earths. 6x demand rise by 2030 Lithium, cobalt, graphite, rare earths all face supply risk. Recycling and supply diversification urgently needed. Lead times of 20 years make this the transition's greatest structural risk. ▼ Bottleneck risk
India 50% non-fossil capacity milestone hit 5 years early. 44.5 GW added in 2025 (nearly double 2024). $101B clean energy investment record. 254 GW RE capacity 500 GW non-fossil target by 2030. 5 Mt/year green hydrogen. 144 GW/year solar module manufacturing. ▲ Breakout leader
Africa Record +15.9% capacity growth. Solar imports from China +60%. Development banks pledged $50B+ through 2030. Yet only 1% of global solar PV installed. 60% of world's best solar Growing fastest among emerging regions. Off-grid solar and mini-grids key pathway for 666M without electricity. ~ Accelerating slowly
Latin America Already 70% renewable electricity. Clean investment fell $81B → $67B in 2025. Needs $150B/year by 2030. Brazil, Uruguay, Costa Rica world leaders. 70% RE electricity Offshore wind auctions (Brazil) expected 2026. Critical minerals position (lithium, copper) strategically crucial for global supply. ~ Potential lagging
Global Investment $3.3T total energy investment in 2025 (record). $2.2T clean energy. But $5.6T/year needed through 2030 to meet Paris goals. $2.2T clean in 2025 Need 2.5x current annual clean investment. Emerging markets and developing economies must capture much larger share. ~ Insufficient pace
"The direction of travel is unmistakable: clean power is scaling, markets are shifting, and the electricity system is becoming the centre of economic strategy — from AI growth to energy security." — Ember, December 2025
The central tension of 2025: Record renewable deployment. Record CO₂ emissions. Both are true simultaneously. The energy system is transitioning, but not fast enough — and the transition is deeply uneven. Advanced economies and China captured the majority of clean investment. The Global South, which will drive 80% of future energy demand, received only a fraction. Solar and wind are the unstoppable present. SMRs, EGS geothermal, and fusion represent the deepening future. Critical minerals and grid infrastructure are the two structural risks that could slow everything down. The next decade will determine whether the world treats 2025's milestones as a starting line — or a ceiling.
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